---start biostat.01.06.97--- Dr. Larry Laster 4044 VHUP, secretary 2038 VHUP (chuck morris) phone # epidemiology 8 3378, laster 8 5076 Two handouts: lecture schedule, "handout #1 biostatistics" (note: page 5 is SEPARATE from rest of handout!!) general course information: this is not a general statistics course. we have 24 hours. there will be no FINAL per se....will do what he's done in the past countless years. there will be three very brief take home exams if you want to call them that. they are projects to be done in groups, the score is for the group. it is suggested that you NOT NOT NOT do it alone, singles don't do well. groups of 3-5 are best. Dr Laster remarks that over 35 yrs of teaching he's taught vet students med students and dental, and vet students have the best personalities :). he says the medical people are a little hard to work with ego wise, even when they're first years. but the dental students are a thing to themselves (i think he's implying that they are weird ...) he will try to make this fun and instructive since everyone finds this topic dry and doesn't want to be here. One year several groups complained that group members weren't working, so he gave a final exam. he doesn't want to do that, too much work for everyone. each project gets about a week to be worked on. this is not a course on how to do statistics, but how to understand them in a biological setting. we need to be able to evaluate the scientific literature... this course was designed for that kind of environment. we will go over and over a small number of concepts. we are NOT going to cover a LOT of ground, but we will learn in depth a few important topics. important thing: to get anything out of this course, you need to show up for class. everything builds on everything else. the first two handouts (handout #1 and #2) should be all the notes we need. we should not need to take notes in class. We do not have to take notes. when we get into handout 3, may want to take notes. handouts 4-8 you WILL want to take notes. for handouts one and two, though, DO NOT NEED TO TAKE NOTES. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW IS IN THE HANDOUTS. I guess I should stop taking these notes :) -- Probability: notions in probability theory are required for decisionmaking under uncertainty. if we could measure everything, we wouldn't need probability statistics. on election night, when people are voting, all the votes are cast by the end of the day. polls close at 8 pm and all votes are in. if there were an instantaneous way to count votes, we wouldnt' have all those "projections". but we don't count instantly. many tv stations call the election within 10-15 min or an hour of the closing of the polls. the next morning the votes ARE done being counted and usually the tv stations were right, even though they based their projections on a few thousands out of millions of votes. so the ability to take a sample and develop a theory about the rest is what this probability statistics thing is about. ability to take small number of observations and make judgement about large number of observations. because of these notions of being able to make judgements under uncertainty, we need some probability theory. so. PROBABILITY NOTIONS: see handout :) he's going to tell us a guaranteed method to win 90% of the time at craps. but you lose 10% of the time. and then probably you'll break even. but anyway, he's going to get back to that later, and i'm not taking notes on the stuff thatis totally in the handout. ---end---